Retailers Forecast Accelerating Declines for US Imports Due to Tariffs

The National Retail Federation is predicting that U.S. imports will see accelerating year-over-year declines in volumes for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The trade group for the U.S. retail industry cites the continuing rise in tariffs as well as retailers' efforts to build inventory early due to the timing of the introduction of tariffs.

With most holiday merchandise already on hand and continued uncertainty over tariffs, the forecast from the retailers says that monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to fall below the two million TEU mark for the remainder of the year, and into 2026. The NRF forecasts a nearly three percent decline in TEU volume for the full year in 2025.

“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers front loading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

The NRF’s monthly Global Port Tracker report, prepared by Hackett Associates, shows that import volumes peaked at 2.39 million TEU in July and have begun a steady monthly decline versus year-ago levels. August levels were basically flat with a year ago, but at 2.32 million TEU, were down nearly three percent from the previous month. 

Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.12 million TEU, which would be a month-over-month decline of 8.6 percent and a 6.8 percent year-over-year decline.

The retail trade group points to the latest tariffs, 25 percent on upholstered furniture regardless of country, and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, which take effect next week and increase in January, as a further negative impact on imports. It also notes that the current deadline for an agreement with China is November 10, and unless extended, could see the introduction of more tariffs.

The NRF is projecting continuing monthly declines in import volumes, noting that the monthly TEU figure will be consistently below two million for the remainder of 2025 and at least the first two months of 2026. On a year-over-year basis, they forecast a decline of 12.3 percent in October, 19.2 percent in November, and 19.4 percent for December. At 1.72 million TEU, December is forecast to be the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals the NRF reports are related to tariffs, it notes the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. The first half of 2025 was up 3.7 percent, while the forecast projects an 8.7 percent decline for the second half of 2025.

The group believes the declines will carry forward into the start of 2026. January 2026 is forecast at 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1 percent year-over-year, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8 percent.

The NRF has not yet issued its forecast for holiday sales in 2025, but it has cautioned that the current government shutdown is another negative factor.  It cites the economic uncertainty caused by a government shutdown, which it said is both unnecessary and damaging, as further eroding consumer confidence ahead of the pivotal holiday retail season.