Retailers Expect Declining Import Cargo Volume to Continue in 2026

container offloading to chaise — Retailers forecast continued declines for import volumes through at least the first quarter of 2026 (Los Angeles file photo)

The National Retail Federation issued its forecast for imports through the first quarter of 2026, saying that it expects volumes will continue the year-over-year declines seen in five of the past 11 months. The retail trade association, while expecting record sales during the holiday season, projects that import volumes will continue the overall declines well into 2026 due to uncertainty over tariffs and trade policies.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

The group moderated its forecast for the declines in the fourth quarter of 2025, pointing to the administration’s move to reduce tariffs on some food products and the agreement with China. They believe retailers rushed imports earlier in the year in anticipation of the tariffs and which contributed to eh 3.7 percent volume increase in the first half of 2025. Similarly, the recent moves by the administration gave retailers a window to get more merchandise into their warehouses.

With retailers well stocked, the NRF is forecasting record holiday sales. They believe total sales will be over $1 trillion for the first time, up between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over 2024.

The latest forecast for the fourth quarter, 5.86 million TEU, is up nearly 12 percent from the group’s lowest forecast, which came during the summer with pending massive tariff rates. Even still, the forecast is 10 percent below 2024, although the group notes imports were accelerated a year ago due to the pending East Coast longshore strike.

“The effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon, said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year.”

The Global Port Tracker projects December at 1.88 million TEU, which the NRF notes would be the slowest month of the year. It would be down 12 percent versus 2024’s December monthly volume. December 2025 would also be the slowest month since 1.83 million TEU in June 2023.

While the first half of 2025 was up over 2024, the NRF forecasts the second half will be off 5.7 percent. The full year is forecast at 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

While they expect cargo volume to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January, which is forecast at 2 million TEU, it would still be down 10.3 percent year over year. February is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5 percent year over year; March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.8 percent; and April at 1.97, down 10.9 percent. The first quarter of 2026 is forecasted to be off by more than 12 percent versus 2025.