Iranian Navy Sends Out Two Flotillas – Destinations Uncertain
The Commander of Iran’s regular Navy (Nedaja), Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, told a conference of clergymen in Tehran late last week that he has dispatched two flotillas in the direction of South Africa. The Admiral had previously forewarned of such a deployment, including that, in conjunction, port visits would be made in East Africa, although the Nedaja may have difficulty securing diplomatic clearances from host countries.
Admiral Irani stated that the naval groups en route to South Africa were the 103rd and 104th Flotillas. The 103rd was to take part in a ‘BRICS joint exercise,’ an exercise postponed from November, which is code named Exercise Mosi-3, and which the Maritime Executive had predicted would be held alongside South Africa, Russia, and China. A planning meeting for Exercise Mosi-3 was hosted in South Africa in June, and was also attended by observers from Ethiopia (which does not have a navy nor access to the sea) and Indonesia. Iranian participation can be expected to consist of a frigate and a resupply vessel.
Perhaps of more interest, the 104th Flotilla’s mission was given by Admiral Irani as the “escort of commercial shipping.” This could imply that the Nedaja is to resume maintaining station in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a continuous presence since 2008, which was broken off in January this year, and which was always justified on the basis of protecting commercial shipping.
Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor, early December 23 (Sentinel-2/CJRC). IRINS Kurdestan (K442) or Khuzestan (K443) (Yellow) and 2 x Alvand/Moudge and 2 x Bayandoor Class frigates (Red)
A more worrying potential destination for the 104th Flotilla might be the waters off Venezuela, where Iran’s Supreme Leader may judge that Iranian commercial shipping is at much greater risk than in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden area. The United States is currently preparing to unload oil in Galveston, which was on board the sanctioned 160,098GT VLCC tanker Skipper, which was seized off Venezuela on December 10. The tanker is part of Iran’s dark fleet, which is shipping sanctioned oil.
The Nedaja has demonstrated an ability to mount such long-range expeditions before, and indeed the Nedaja’s 86th Flotilla was scheduled to visit Venezuela on its global circumnavigation when it was denied access through the Panama Canal in January 2023. In consequence, the 86th Flotilla was denied the privilege of a shore visit to Caracas, and had to sail for home instead via the Straits of Magellan and then the Cape of Good Hope. The 86th Flotilla was made up of the Moudge Class frigate IRINS Dena (F75) and the converted tanker and resupply vessel IRINS Makran (K441). If the 104th Flotilla was to head for Venezuelan waters, a brave if perhaps foolhardy endeavor in the light of the United States’ expressed determination in its recently published National Security Strategy to dominate the Western Hemisphere, then it would likely be similarly configured.
Where the 104th is heading for will not become clear, nor which ships make up either flotilla, until the first port calls are made.
In making public announcements on military matters, the Iranians are not always reliable or accurate conveyors of ground truth. But partially confirming Admiral Irani’s announcement, and peering through the clouds, only two Alvand/Moudge frigates can be seen in the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor early on the morning of December 23. The long-range resupply ship IRINS Makran (K441) is also missing from its normal mooring, but the smaller resupply ship IRINS Kurdestan (K442) or its sister ship, the recently commissioned IRINS Khuzestan (K443), is still present. The other of these ships could be on the deployment, as could one of the Hengam Class landing ships, which have in the past been used in the support role.
The designation of the two flotillas heading for South Africa as the 103rd and 104th is further confirmation of the lack of naval deployments both in the run-up and the aftermath of the 12-Day War; the 102nd Flotilla is believed to have participated in Exercise Aman-25, off Karachi, in February this year.