Iran Threatens to Close Off All Oil and Gas Export Routes From Gulf Region
Repeated exchanges of fire with U.S. forces appear to be prompting Iranian leaders to contemplate further escalation. Late Tuesday, official news channel IRIB issued a statement claiming that Iran will close down all oil and gas export routes out of the Mideast if the U.S. keeps up its newly-reimposed blockade on Iran's seaports. If achievable, closing off all of the alternative export options would take another nine million barrels per day offline, nearly a tenth of the total global oil supply.
"The enemy should know that now that its pirates have blocked the route for exporting oil and gas to the world from the Indian Ocean, a route that threatens the economic interests of America's rivals, they should expect other export routes for oil and gas, which benefit America and its allies, to be closed as well," IRIB warned. "Oil and gas exports from this region should be either for everyone or for no one."
Iran has previously threatened to ask its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut down the Red Sea to Western shipping, but that risk has yet to materialize. The other possible interpretation of the threat could be a warning that Iran may attack the desert-crossing pipelines that move Emirati oil to the Gulf of Oman and Saudi oil to the Red Sea - a far more serious outcome. Saudi Aramco's East-West Pipeline was hit previously during the initial round of hostilities in April, damaging a pumping station and slowing down the line's operations for several days. It was fully restored to a flow rate of seven million barrels per day in mid-April, and Saudi Aramco is said to be examining a plan to expand it by another two million barrels per day.
In the neighboring UAE, a pipeline system from the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman carries up to 1.8 million barrels per day, and Emirati oil company ADNOC is working fast to complete a second parallel line that would double that amount. A third line to carry refined fuel is in planning.
With strikes on multiple targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, Iran has demonstrated its continued ability to attack neighboring states. Its restraint so far in refraining from attacking oil and gas infrastructure could be tested if the U.S. continues with further strikes, as it did on Tuesday night.
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Overnight Tuesday, Central Command carried out a seven-hour-long series of strikes on dozens of Iranian targets, including coastal defense systems, missile and drone launch sites, and naval systems. Among other targets, U.S. forces hit a port facility at Bandar Abbas, adjacent to the commercial seaport's "control tower" structure.
Further U.S. engagement in the region could soon encounter a procedural problem. The U.S. Senate's authorization is technically required for long-running hostilities, and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has demanded an end to the fighting - or he will hold up the passage of the critical National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the must-pass annual military spending bill. To pass the Senate's filibuster rules, a measure must receive at least 60 out of 100 votes, giving the minority party considerable power over what advances to the floor for a vote. All 47 members of the Senate Democratic conference voted against moving the NDAA forward - until hostilities are over.
