Despite Houthi Truce, Diego Garcia Stays Busy
The United States appears to be withdrawing a number of B-2 Spirit strategic long-range bombers from Diego Garcia, its Naval Support Facility in the British Indian Ocean Territory. A flight of three such aircraft were being tankered towards and across Northern Australia en route back to Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri on May 9.
The B-2 aircraft are likely to have been withdrawn following the recent Houthi declaration that it will cease its attacks on shipping in the Red Sea – even though the group continues to attack Israel.
The Houthis have indeed continued to launch missiles at targets in Israel, forcing an evacuation of beaches in Tel Aviv on May 9. A Houthi missile was successfully intercepted by Israel’s Arrow long-range air defense system, although an attempted interception by the U.S. THAAD system is reported to have failed. In retaliation, Israel is reported to have launched another attack on the Hodeidah port complex, which Houthi authorities have said was being brought back into operation after previous Israeli attacks.
In the Omani-mediated agreement between the United States and the Houthis, the United States had demanded an end to Houthi attacks on Israel, which the Houthis rejected. The United States nonetheless accepted the Houthi position, effectively stepping back from its air campaign without having achieved the political objective of forcing the Houthis to give up all extra-territorial missile and drone attacks.
Although forced into the agreement by the US air attacks, the Houthis have managed to preserve enough of their remaining missile and drone capability to continue their attacks on Israel, and can paint the result as a victory for Houthi staying power in their support for Palestine.
The agreement also leaves the Houthis with sufficient capability to resume attacks on shipping at short notice, should it wish to accuse the United States of supporting the continued Israeli counter-strikes. That the Houthis retain an anti-shipping capability will not be missed by shipping lines, who are likely to seize the rationale to continue the longer routing around the Cape of Good Hope, given that this absorbs additional capacity in a shipping market where there is oversupply.
The fragility of the Houthi pause in attacks on shipping appears to have been recognized by CENTCOM planners, because the B-2 Spirit aircraft withdrawn from Diego Garcia have been replaced by at least four B-52 strategic bombers. The venerable B-52 has none of the B-2's stealth, but it is far easier to maintain on a long forward deployment.