Analysts Question Whether Trump-Class Battleship Will be Built
The announcement of a new Trump-class battleship design last week prompted considerable commentary about its equipment, capabilities and exceptional size. At 35,000 tonnes, it would rival a small amphibious assault ship for displacement. Amidst the discussion of the merits of such a large combatant, key questions about its survivability loom in the procurement process: where could it be built, when would it deliver, how much would it cost, and what would be the tradeoffs made in order to build it?
The Navy has resolved the "where" question, at least for the first two hulls. Initial design awards are going to Bath Iron Works, Huntington Ingalls Industries, and Leidos' Gibbs & Cox, suggesting that one or both of the two major U.S. surface combatant shipbuilders may be in line to secure orders.
Design timeline and shipyard selection feed into the question of when delivery would occur. BIW and HII are both busy with existing programs, and have had challenges in competing for skilled workers. Given the labor and supply chain issues across the sector, all current naval shipbuilding programs are behind schedule, according to Navy Secretary John Phelan.
The Navy confirmed to The War Zone that steel-cutting for the first Trump-class hull is going to begin in the early 2030s, which would be in the second half of a proposed third term for President Trump. After construction starts, the timetable for delivery of a large first-in-class combatant vessel would likely be in the mid-2030s. The most comparable recent U.S. Navy shipbuilding project, first-in-class USS Zumwalt, took five years to build from keel laying to commissioning at Bath Iron Works. Assuming a construction start in 2030, and completion of the lead ship with the same speed as the much-smaller Zumwalt, the commissioning date would be in 2035.
Cost would be substantial. Assuming the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of about $300,000 per tonne for a destroyer, plus the added cost of a first-in-class hull, the future USS Defiant would be priced well in excess of $10 billion for the lead ship, calculates CSIS analyst Mark Cancian - before inflation, which is higher in shipbuilding than in the rest of the economy. This price range is roughly comparable to one Ford-class aircraft carrier, three Virginia-class attack subs or five Arleigh Burke Flight III destroyers. An even larger number of future medium-sized unmanned combatant vessels could be purchased for this price.
In the 2030s, other presidential administrations will be making the decision on whether to build Trump-class battleships or to focus on other budgetary options, Cancian noted. Funding pressures may be key: Defiant would deliver at the same time as a planned jump in other U.S. Navy fleet expenditures in the mid-2030s. From an annual budget of about $255 billion today, the Navy's spending is on track to rise by $45 billion a year by the end of the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office estimates - before adding the cost of the new Trump-class battleship program.
While USS Defiant is in planning and construction, the nature of naval warfare is expected to evolve as more nations field unmanned platforms and hypersonic missiles - both well-suited for attacking large, high-cost combatant vessels like battleships. "The size and the prestige value of [the Trump-class] make it an even more tempting target, potentially for your adversary," suggested Bernard Loo, senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, in conversation with CNBC.