The Lowy Interpreter

Security Forces May Accompany China's Belt and Road Abroad

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-11-30 08:42:29

[By David Brewster] Last week’s attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi by Baluchi separatists underlines China’s growing vulnerabilities in connection with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These are likely to get worse and may ultimately lead to China assuming a new and quite different security role in the region. On November 23, a group of Baluchi separatists attacked a Chinese consulate, resulting in an hour long-shoot out with Pakistani police and security guards that left seven people dead. This is...

Naval Encounters the "New Norm" in the South China Sea

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-11-09 13:05:14

The release of video footage from the bridge wing of USS Decatur which shows its recent close encounter with the Chinese destroyer Lanzhou in the South China Sea confirms the judgement that the PLA Navy ship did not act wisely in its approach to the US Navy unit in response to the latter’s freedom of navigation operation. Lanzhou came upon the American ship from astern, making it the “burdened” vessel under the International Regulations for the Prevention of Collision at Sea (COLREGS), passed up Decatur’s port side and moved...

Slavery Still Persists in Thai Fisheries

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-11-02 09:15:55

[By JJ Rose] About an hour south of Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, down a dusty, broken-edged road, dotted with grimy stores and street stalls, with the incessant buzz of motorbikes, stands a desolate building complex. Turn right at the festering drain, past the guard dozing in his chair, and the dog licking itself on the pavement, if you look hard, you’ll see an office. A swarm of children race by. The disruption hardly ruffles a group of perhaps 10 young people sitting at a...

Belt and Road: China's Biggest Brand

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-08-31 13:53:48

[By Merriden Verrall] Most public discussion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) tends to paint it as a coherent strategy of the Chinese Communist Party. One school argues that this strategy is largely economic in focus, the other major approach focuses on the political drivers. What both need to consider is that either way, the BRI is actually just a brand. It’s a marketing tool, a label applied with a sweeping generosity to a huge range of projects being...

A Step Forward: The New Caspian Sea Convention

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-08-17 15:22:07

[By Dr. Stephen Blank] Demarcation of the Caspian Sea has been one of the longest lasting casualties of the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The Soviet collapse invalidated the 1940 Irano-Soviet treaty that had demarcated the rights of both countries regarding the Caspian Sea. Thus, after 1991, five territories became littoral states of the Caspian Sea, necessitating clarification of its legal status so that they could exploit and demarcate it among themselves. The fact that this agreement...

Yemen and the Drone Innovation

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-08-10 16:35:17

[By Rodger Shanahan] As Yemen’s deadly conflict grinds on, exactly how much assistance the Iranians are providing the Houthis is open to conjecture. The Saudi-led coalition is keen to portray the Houthis as agents, rather than allies, of Iran. And while there is certainly strong evidence of technology and weapons transfer – either by land through Oman, or via the Red Sea – the Yemenis have also demonstrated their ability to improvise when necessary. Their reported conversion of anti-ship missiles from a ship- to...

China's "Belt and Road Initiative" Arrives in West Africa

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-07-20 15:00:33

[By Dr. Cornelia Tremann] Xi Jinping’s choice of Senegal for a state visit on July 20-21 his first visit to West Africa, suggests that China seeks to deepen cooperation in a region that has seen less Chinese engagements than elsewhere in Africa. In using Senegal as a springboard, China seeks to advance strategic goals: bringing West Africa into the “Belt and Road” orbit and consolidating influence in a historically French-dominated region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been targeted at rail, road,...

In Defense of the Aircraft Carrier

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-06-28 19:04:37

[By Abhijit Singh] In a recent article, David Brewster poses an interesting question: is there a cheaper and less risky way for India to project power in the neighborhood than by continuing to rely on its aircraft carriers? By developing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands into a strategic hub for power projection, Brewster wonders if India could replace its expensive and “sinkable” aircraft carriers with “unsinkable” island bases. Yet the choice for New Delhi to abandon its flat-tops in...

Island Bases vs. Aircraft Carriers: Choices for the Indian Navy

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-06-20 12:31:18

[By David Brewster] Many analysts are skeptical about the vulnerability and cost of large aircraft carriers (and the opportunity cost of building, maintaining, and protecting them). Others argue that carriers are becoming more survivable, capable, and lethal than ever before. If the skeptics are right, what are the cheaper and less risky ways of achieving effects similar to those of aircraft carriers? One alternative is to use island bases: they may not be able to move, but they are likely...

Will Pakistan's "Belt and Road" Dream Turn into a Nightmare?

By The Lowy Interpreter 2018-06-15 10:39:17

[By David Brewster] China’s infrastructure investments as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have the potential to change the strategic dynamics of the entire Indo-Pacific region. The BRI’s “flagship” project is the $62 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is planned to run from one end of Pakistan to the other. This has led to overinflated expectations that seem unlikely to be met. Pakistan’s new cargo cult The CPEC is considered a game changer by the Pakistani elite, who...