Monthly Retail Import Volume Still Below 1 Million Containers

April was the third-slowest month in the past five years despite a slight improvement over March, says National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

WASHINGTON (June 9, 2009): Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports remained below the 1 million mark in April and was the third-slowest month in the past five years despite a slight improvement over March, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

“Retailers are still being cautious with their inventory levels in anticipation of slow sales this summer and into the fall,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The big question is what will happen during the fourth quarter. Our numbers for the fall are an improvement over the summer but are still lower than last year.”

U.S. ports surveyed handled 990,632 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in April, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 2 percent from March but down 22 percent from April 2008. After February (839, 492 TEU) and March (970,949 TEU), the figure was the third-lowest since the 901,497 seen in February 2004, and marks the 22nd month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

Volume for May was estimated at 1.03 million TEU, down 21 percent from a year earlier, and June is forecast at 1.06 million TEU, down 19 percent from last year. July is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, down 16 percent; August at 1.14 million TEU, down 17 percent; and September at 1.12 million TEU, down 18 percent. October – traditionally the peak of the annual shipping cycle as holiday merchandise flows into stores – is forecast at 1.15 million TEU, down 16 percent.

The first half of 2009 is now forecast at 5.9 million TEU, down 21 percent from the 7.5 million TEU seen in the first half of 2008. Total volume for 2008 was 15.2 million TEU, down 7.9 percent from 2007’s 16.5 million TEU and the lowest level since 2004’s 14 million TEU.

“Monthly cargo volumes are starting to creep up but the magnitude of the recessionary decline is clear when you compare this year’s numbers with last year’s,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Import container traffic is projected to continue to be weak because of the underlying reduction in demand for goods during the recession.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact IHS Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.