2009 Retail Import Volume to Be Lowest Since 2003

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.1 million TEU in July, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 8 percent from June but down 17 percent from July 2008, marking the 25th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.

WASHINGTON, September 17, 2009 – Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is now expected to total 12.5 million containers for 2009, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight. The number is significantly below last year’s total but shows improvement from the 12.3 million forecast a month ago.

“We’re starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year but they’re not as far below as they were just a few months ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “This matches up with other economic indicators that show the recession may be coming to an end.”

The 12.5 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units now forecast for 2009 would be a drop of 17.7 percent form last year’s 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU in 2003. The number was revised upward to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.1 million TEU in July, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 8 percent from June but down 17 percent from July 2008, marking the 25th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.

Volume for August was estimated at 1.13 million TEU, down 17 percent from last year, while September is forecast at 1.11 million TEU, down 18 percent. October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast at 1.14 million TEU, down 17 percent. November is forecast at 1.07 million TEU, down 13 percent, and December is forecast at 1.04 million TEU, down 2 percent from 2008.

The 2 percent decline in December is significant because it would be the first single-digit decline of the year and compares with drops that have ranged from 15 percent to 32 percent. But January 2010 is forecast at 1.01 million TEU, down 18 percent from January 2009.

“Import container traffic is projected to be weak through January because of the slow pace of recovery from the recession and the slow period that follows the holiday season,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “We are seeing the annual cycle of month-to-month growth that will peak in October, but volume is still below last year’s levels.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact IHS Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

IHS Global Insight (www.globalinsight.com) provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS, www.ihs.com) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted information and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: energy, product lifecycle, security, and environment supported by macroeconomics.