2008 Retail Container Traffic to be Lowest Since 2005

Port Tracker report shows marked decline in TEU port activity.

WASHINGTON, October 7, 2008 – Cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is now expected to decline 6.5 percent in 2008 compared with 2007 as merchants carefully manage inventories in response to the nation’s slow economy, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

Volume is projected to total 15.43 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units for the year, compared with 16.5 million TEU in 2007. The estimate is down from 15.5 million projected in September, which would have been a 6 percent decline from 2007. The total would be the lowest since 2005, when 15.4 million TEU moved through the ports. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

“This has clearly been a difficult year and we still have a challenging holiday season ahead of us,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers are being careful to import only as much merchandise as they think they can sell.”

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.37 million TEU in August, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was up 4 percent from July but down 5.9 percent from August 2007.

September was estimated at 1.34 million TEU, down 9.2 percent from a year ago, and October is forecast at 1.38 million TEU, down 4.3 percent. October should be the peak month of the year, though it will fall short of the 1.48 million TEU peak for 2007 set last September. November is forecast at 1.28 million TEU, down 6.9 percent, and December at 1.25 million TEU, down 2.1 percent. January 2009 is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 1.6 percent from January 2008, and February 2009 is forecast at 1.15 million TEU, down 5.9 percent.

Meanwhile, Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continues at medium because of new regulations that required trucking companies seeking to do business there to obtain a special concession license beginning October 1.

“Uncertainties remaining for implementation of the Clean Trucks Program at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are causing concerns,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Weak import demand has relieved pressure on port capacity but doubts remain about whether enough trucks will be available.”

The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

•About Port Tracker:

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.

•About National Retail Federation:

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2006 sales of $4.7 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com

Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance, and government with revenues in excess of $105 million, more than 690 employees and 25 offices in 14 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. www.globalinsight.com

NRF: J. Craig Shearman / (202) 626-8134 / [email protected]
Global Insight: Paul Bingham / (202) 481-9216 / [email protected]