NOAA Issues Hurricane Season Outlook

Commerce Secretary encourages preparedness as NOAA predicts “Normal or Below Normal” Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season and a “Near Normal” Atlantic season.

NOAA forecasters say a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke coupled that prediction with a warning to all Atlantic coast residents to prepare for the possibility of a storm striking near you is essential. Locke went on to say, “Timely and accurate warnings of severe weather help save lives and property. Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane.”

In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, NOAA forecasts call for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. According to NOAA, global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).

Tropical systems acquire a name upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds increase to 111 mph. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes with two becoming major hurricanes.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, NOAA has announced that conditions point to a normal or below normal hurricane season this year. The outlook calls for a 40 percent probability of a below normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near normal season and a 20 percent probably of an above normal season.

An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D. and lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center cautioned those in the affected area that, “During this low-activity era, neutral conditions increase the chance of a below-normal season, while El Niño increases the chance of a near normal season. If significant El Niño impacts develop, as a few models suggest, we could even see an above-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific region.”