Monthly Retail Import Volume Returns to 1 Million Containers

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.04 million TEU’s in May, up 5 percent from April and this ended a three-month streak of numbers below 1 million. Volume still off by 20 percent from April 2008.

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports climbed back above the 1 million mark for the first time in four months in May but is continuing to see double-digit declines compared with last year, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

“Monthly numbers are rising as we enter the back-to-school season and will continue to do so as we build up to the holiday season, which is the cycle we see every year whether the economy is good or not,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The volumes are still far below what we saw last year and it’s going to stay that way until the economy begins to recover.”

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.04 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in May, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 5 percent from April and ended a three-month streak of numbers below 1 million but was down 20 percent from April 2008. After February (839,492 TEU), March (970,949 TEU) and April (990,632 TEU), the figure was the fourth-lowest since the 901,497 seen in February 2004, and marked the 23rd month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

Volume for June was estimated at 1.06 million TEU, down 18 percent from a year earlier, and July is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, down 16 percent from last year. August is forecast at 1.14 million TEU, down 17 percent and September at 1.12 million TEU, down 18 percent. October – traditionally the peak of the annual shipping cycle as holiday merchandise flows into stores – is forecast at 1.15 million TEU, down 17 percent, and November is forecast at 1.06 million TEU, down 14 percent.

The first half of 2009 is now forecast at 6 million TEU, down 20 percent from the 7.5 million TEU seen in the first half of 2008. Total volume for 2008 was 15.2 million TEU, down 7.9 percent from 2007’s 16.5 million TEU and the lowest level since 2004’s 14 million TEU.

“With the volumes low, the ports are clear of congestion and there’s plenty of capacity on the rails and highways,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “We’ve gotten to the point where the reduced demand for port labor has prompted some dockworkers to leave the workforce, and many port truckers are struggling.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact IHS Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.