Container Volume Expected to Be Lowest Since 2004, But Numbers Rising

February 2010 is forecast at 973,872 TEU – below 1 million for the first time since April, but up 16 percent from February 2009 and the first year-over-year increase in more than two years.

WASHINGTON, October 21, 2009 – Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is now expected to total 12.7 million containers for 2009, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight. The revised number is significantly below last year’s total but shows continuing growth over what was forecast this summer.

“As we move closer to the end of the year and get updated numbers, we’re seeing a steady improvement with year-over-year declines becoming smaller,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “This doesn’t mean that the challenges are behind us, but retailers are slowly starting to import more merchandise and that’s a positive sign.”

The 12.7 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units now forecast for 2009 would be a drop of 16.8 percent from last year’s 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 14 million TEU imported in 2004. In August, Port Tracker forecast 12.3 million TEU for the year and in September increased the number to 12.5 million. The numbers have been revised upward to reflect higher projected imports for the remainder of the year as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.17 million TEU in August, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 6 percent from July but down 15 percent from August 2008, marking the 26th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. Volume for September was estimated at 1.14 million TEU, down 16 percent from last year.

October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast to tie August at 1.17 million TEU, down 15 percent from last October. Volume will then begin its annual downward cycle in November, which is forecast at 1.09 million TEU, down 11 percent from last year, and December – previously forecast at a 2 percent decline from last year – is now expected to be flat at 1.06 million TEU. January 2010 is forecast at 1.03 million TEU, down 3 percent from January 2009 rather than the 18 percent drop expected a month ago.

February 2010 is forecast at 973,872 TEU – below 1 million for the first time since April, but up 16 percent from February 2009 and the first year-over-year increase in more than two years. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, coming after the holiday season is over but before spring and summer merchandise reaches the docks.

“As we come to the end of peak season, very weak monthly import container traffic volume is still the pattern,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Volumes have been increasing month-to-month, but from a very low trough going back to last winter. The underlying seasonal pattern will still affect volumes in the next six months with the slow season seeing declines in monthly volumes again.”

All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact IHS Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

IHS Global Insight (www.globalinsight.com) provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS, www.ihs.com) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted information and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: energy, product lifecycle, security, and environment supported by macroeconomics.