Retail Container Volume Below Last Year But Climbing

Port Tracker report says Nation's continuing economic slowdown will keep cargo traffic at major retail container ports below last year's levels through this summer and early fall, but month-to-month numbers are climbing and ports should see a return to year-over-year growth by Halloween. WASHINGTON, June 6, 2008: The nation's continuing economic slowdown will keep cargo traffic at major retail container ports below last year's levels through this summer and early fall, but month-to-month numbers are climbing and ports should see a return to year-over-year growth by Halloween, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight. "The numbers are still below last year but they are steadily climbing," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "That's in line with forecasts that the economy could begin its slow recovery this fall and reflects retailers' sales expectations for the holiday season." U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.26 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units (TEU) of container traffic in April, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That's up 8.9 percent from March – which registered the lowest volume in two years – but down 4.7 percent from April 2007. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent. May was estimated at 1.3 million TEU, down 5.7 percent from a year ago, and June is forecast at 1.34 million TEU, down 8.1 percent. July is forecast at 1.4 million TEU, down 2.8 percent; August at 1.46 million TEU, down 0.3 percent; and September at 1.43 million TEU, down 3.1 percent. October is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, a 2.7 percent increase that would represent the first year-to-year rise since July 2007, when 1.44 million TEU were handled compared with 1.4 million in July 2006. Meanwhile, all U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated "low" for congestion, the same as last month. "The covered ports are operating without congestion from the harbor to the gate," Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. "One piece of good news is that progress has been reported in the West Coast longshore labor union contract negotiations. We hope this is a positive sign that a new contract will be reached without a significant work stoppage. Other than this contract, we don't see any significant labor issues threatening the ports, and expect port and transportation labor to continue to be adequate over the next six months." Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-NRF members can contact Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265. Global Insight Inc. is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance, and government with revenues in excess of $105 million, more than 690 employees and 25 offices in 14 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. http://www.globalinsight.com Contacts: NRF: J. Craig Shearman / (202) 626-8134 / [email protected] Global Insight: Paul Bingham / (202) 481-9216 / [email protected]


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