DOT: Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.3 Percent in December from November

Wednesday, February 11, 2009 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 2.3 percent in December from its November level, falling for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today.

The December decline, the fourth monthly decrease in five months, dropped the freight index to a loss of 3.0 percent for 2008. The index was up 2.7 percent for the first seven months of the year but declined 5.5 percent in the final five months, the largest five-month decline since the period ending April 2000 (Tables 2, 3).
The 2008 decline of 3.0 percent was the third consecutive annual decline and the largest since 2000 (Table 3).

At 105.1 in December, the freight TSI is at its lowest level since September 2003 when it was 104.4 and is down 7.1 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

The 2.3 percent decline from November to December dropped the freight index to its lowest year-end level since 2002.

As a result of the 2.3 percent decline in December, the freight index dropped 2.7 percent in the five years from December 2003, the first such five-year decrease since January 1990, the starting date of the index. The index is still up 5.3 percent in 10 years. The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the January index is scheduled for March 11.

BTS has issued a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers fell 0.9 percent in December from its November level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI December 2008 level of 113.0 was 3.6 percent lower than the December 2007 level, the first annual decrease since 2001 (Table 3). The 3.6 percent annual decline dropped the passenger index to its lowest year-end level since 2005. Despite the decline for the year, the passenger index is up 12.5 percent in five years and 20.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).

The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Freight and Passenger Index

The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 1.9 percent in December from its November level. The combined TSI December 2008 level of 106.7 was 3.1 percent lower than the December 2007 level and marked the first annual decrease since 2006 (Table 3). This annual decline dropped the combined index to its lowest year-end level since 2003. However, the combined index is up 0.9 percent in five years and 9.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5).

The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
4th Quarter Changes

On a quarterly basis, the Freight TSI fell 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly decline since 4.8 percent decrease in the first quarter of 2000. However, the 2.6 percent fourth quarter decline following a 1.6 percent third-quarter drop resulted in the largest decline of any two consecutive quarters in the last 10 years. The Passenger TSI fell 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter following a 2.8 percent third-quarter decline that was the largest in the last five years. The Combined TSI fell 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, falling for the second consecutive quarter.
More on TSI

NOTE: TSI numbers for August (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The August Freight TSI is 108.7, revised from the 110.8 reported in last month’s release (December). The August Passenger TSI is unchanged at 116.8. The August Combined TSI is 110.3, revised from 111.9. The TSI for September, October, November and December are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml

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