DEEPWATER HORIZON Update June 3, 2010
Size of Oil Spill was Underestimated
The totals for the amount of oil spilled are calculated from the initial explosion at 10 p.m. on April 20.
The Government Estimate
12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day, an estimate announced May 27. The estimates were produced by a panel of experts from universities, government laboratories and government agencies
The MacDonald Estimate
Based on an analysis by Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University that was published by SkyTruth on May 1. By studying the amount of the oil visible in aerial imagery, Dr. MacDonald calculated the flow rate to be at least 26,500 barrels (1.1 million gallons) per day. He called this a “minimum estimate” since his calculations could only account for oil that was visible on the surface and did not include oil that had evaporated, mixed in with sea water, sunk to the bottom or been collected by response crews.
The Wereley Estimate
Based on estimates by Steve Wereley, a professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University and an expert in optical flow measurement. He presented his findings to Congress on May 19. He analyzed video of the oil and gas leaking at the bottom of the gulf and estimated the flow rate to be about 72,000 barrels (or 3.0 million gallons) a day coming from the riser pipe and an additional 25,000 barrels coming from the blow out preventer.
BP’s Worst Case Scenario Estimate
The “BP worst case” estimate is based on a figure given by a senior BP executive to members of Congress in a closed-door briefing on May 4. In the worst case, if the leak accelerated, the flow rate could be 60,000 barrels (or 2.5 million gallons) a day.
Latest effort gets snagged
The diamond tipped saw that was being used to cut through the well pipe became stuck, and took BP 12 hours to free it. Now BP engineers will try giant shears to slice off the leaking pipe.
By the Numbers to Date:
• $170 million has been given to Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida to help with response costs by BP.
• BP has paid $42 million so far, in compensation to people and businesses affected by the spill
• 17,500 National Guard Troops are participating in response
• 20,000+ personnel are responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife cleanup
• 1,900 vessels are responding (tugs, barges, skimmers)-also dozens of aircraft, ROV’s and offshore drilling units are being utilized
• 2 million feet of containment boom and 2.1 million feet of sorbent boom have been deployed
• ~13.8 million gallons of oil/water mix have been recovered
• 993,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed
• 125 controlled burns have been conducted-removing 3.2 million gallons of oil
• 17 staging areas in place to protect shorelines
Oil on Shore
Oil has washed up on shore in Louisiana and Mississippi and looms just miles off the coast of Florida's panhandle where it is expected to make landfall Friday or Saturday.
Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?
• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise. Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
o A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast.
o A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up the oil that is below the surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date shows that except near the leaking well, the subsurface dispersed oil is in parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil even further.
Have we had experience in the past with hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil spills that occurred because of the storm, not from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) was that oil released during the storms became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities, shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, much larger than the area covered by oil, and rain is produced in clouds circulating the hurricane.
Possible trajectory of the oil
“A Full and Vigorous Accounting of the Events”
Nuclear Option on Gulf Oil Spill?
The idea began circulating weeks ago, as bloggers brainstormed every possibility to stop the leaking oil well in the gulf.
Now after many failed attempts to seal the well, there’s greater talk of inserting a nuclear bomb in to the well to seal it shut. The Soviet Union reportedly used nuclear explosions to seal off gas wells by inserting the bombs deep underground and allowing the intense heat melt the surrounding rock to shut off the flow.
In theory, the nuclear option seems attractive because the extreme heat might create a tough seal. An exploding atom bomb generates temperatures hotter than the surface of the sun and, detonated underground, can turn acres of porous rock into a glassy plug.
The idea is risky and one that would that could open the doors to even greater environmental disasters. Others have suggested more conventional explosives that are sometimes used on land to seal oil heads, but officials say this may damage the well making the leak worse and not allowing for it to ever be sealed from the top.
The enthusiasm for the nuclear approach is the success the Soviet Union had in sealing off gas heads. They used a series of 5 blasts of which the first 4 were successful.
Federals officials say the nuclear option is not and has never been on the table. Using nuclear weapons would abandon the current administrations international agenda to create a nuclear free world. Using a nuclear blast to seal the well isn’t expected.